As we enter fall, we’ve taken the time to review our forecasts in a bit more detail now that most of the data for the first half of the year is in and we get a bit more clarity around trade policy. Subscribers can access the details through our web site.  

Business Aircraft  

The most significant change we’ve made is with business aircraft, so we’ll start there. We had been expecting for a while to see a post pandemic trail-off of business aircraft orders, but so far business aircraft backlogs have, for the most part, held steady and business aircraft activity has been continuing to grow steadily. Below is a tally of business aircraft backlog progression over the past 18 months as reported by the primary OEMs. We consider the backlog figures to be a more reliable indicator of market health than just announcements of large orders, many of which are really just framework agreements that aren’t fully reflected in the actual backlog.    

Generally speaking, these backlogs represent about two years (or more) of deliveries. These numbers are particularly impressive when viewed against the backdrop of rising deliveries in the past couple of years. These backlog figures have led us to re-evaluate not only the business aircraft market in general, but also some of the internal contours of that market. Subscribers can access the details through our web site.  

Compared to the forecast that we posted in August, here are some highlights of the changes we’ve made to our ten-year forecast:  

• Total forecasted business jet deliveries have increased by 4.6 percent to 7,998. Most of this increase is due to a change in our expectation for deliveries in the back half of the 2020s from a slight dip to a slow but steady increase.
• Value of those deliveries, however, is only expected to be 1.8 percent higher. Based on current trends, most of the growth in expected deliveries comes from the middle-sized business aircraft, and to a lesser extent from smaller business jets. The largest jets see their share diminish slightly but they remain far and away the largest segment with over 62 percent of the value delivered.
• In contrast with business jets, we’ve reassessed our forecast of business turboprops downward 7.4 percent to 3,314 with total delivered value dropping about 12 percent. Most of this drop is due to fewer twin turboprops being delivered than initially expected, while single engine turboprops are expected to largely keep to our original delivery expectations. 
• Putting all this together, and adding passenger aircraft that become business aircraft, our changes result in only a small 0.6 percent increase in both units and dollar value over our previous forecast.  

Commercial Aircraft  

We’ve also made a few tweaks to our commercial aircraft delivery forecast, primarily driven by the now acknowledged delay in initial 777X deliveries into 2027. We initially expected an 11th hour certification in 2026 with a smattering of deliveries in that year. Our expectation now is that certification won’t come until mid-2027. In anticipation of that we think Boeing builds some inventory aircraft ahead of certification which will give it a running start. The delay will only strengthen any pent-up demand which we think incentivizes Boeing to ramp up 777X production faster and higher at the back end of our forecast than we previously expected. We also expect the delay will lead to a few more 777F orders, actual delivery of which, as distinct from production, could bleed over into 2028. In any event, we don’t see Airbus benefiting from a 777X delay. It is possible that Boeing might lose some orders to the A350-1000 but given how hard it appears for Airbus to ramp up A350 deliveries and the size advantage of the 777X over the A350-1000, we don’t expect any significant defections.  

Civil Rotorcraft  

We’ve also made some revisions to our civil rotorcraft forecast. The primary driver here was pushing back deliveries of both the Bell 525 and AW609 tilt rotor from this year to next. Both were supposed to get certificated this year but we’re three-quarters into the year and there’s been little movement. It’s possible certification could come at the very end of the year, but deliveries, which are what we forecast, won’t commence until next year, and once they do, production ramp up isn’t expected to be any faster than what we previously expected given the lackluster demand for either. The beneficiaries are likely to be in our super medium category which includes the likes of the Airbus H175 and Leonardo AW189. In addition to the top end, we also are sensing some weakness in the light single end of the market. In the end, however, our overall 10-year civil aircraft forecast is down just 1 percent in terms of units and 1.4 percent in value.  

Trade Policy Effects  

Earlier this year, we voiced some concern over disruptions to aircraft deliveries from tariffs and a potential backlash from trading partners on U.S. aviation exports. Fortunately, most aviation trade appears to have been spared and there’s been a noticeable uptick in Boeing orders. Whether those are related is up for debate, but for now our worst fears have been largely avoided. With that, we’re abandoning our tariff/reputation scenario in our commercial aircraft forecast.  

There are two notable exceptions, however: Brazil and Switzerland, which affect Embraer and Pilatus respectively and whose products are covered in our regional and business aircraft forecasts. Through the third quarter Embraer’s deliveries appear to be on track, but the fourth quarter may be a different story. Pilatus has suspended deliveries of its PC-12 turboprop and PC-24 business jet in the face of the 39% tariff imposed on Swiss products. We expect that these exceptions will be addressed eventually, but we can’t rule out delivery disruptions from these companies in the all-important fourth quarter. Right now, our regional aircraft and business aircraft forecasts don’t reflect these tariff issues, but delivery delays from both of these companies should be expected.